THE DECISION BOOK FIFTY MODELS FOR STRATEGIC THINKING Mikael Krogerus Roman Tschäppeler Translated by Jenny Piening W Mikael Krogerus Roman Tschäppeler. WHAT YOU WILL FIND IN THIS BOOK The fifty best decision-making models – well-known and not so well-known – that will. The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking Fifty Stories for Fifty Years! Strategic Decision Making: Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Read here gaquavervahip.gq?book= Read [PDF] Download The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic.
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Read The Decision Book PDF - Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking by Mikael Krogerus W. W. Norton & Company | An updated edition of the. Get this from a library! The decision book: fifty models for strategic thinking. [ Mikael Krogerus; Roman Tschappeler;] -- Most of us face the same questions every. Editorial Reviews. Review. A handy primer for anyone keen to tackle problems in a different . The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking (Fully Revised Edition). The Decision Book: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking (Fully Revised.
Accessed 12 June Capra F Tao of physics: an exploration of the parallels between modern physics and eastern mysticism. Accessed 18 May Chowdhury R a Making the most of diversity. The PRactice Viewpoint No. The New York Times. Chief Exec. Fortune India. In: Sushil, Chroust G eds Systemic flexibility and business agility, pp — Springer, Singapore Google Scholar Kratz G The business case: how work flexibility can help companies save money. Accessed 15 Aug Le J 15 systems thinking guidelines to live in a world of uncertainty.
Accessed 25 Nov Lee D Nokia: the rise and fall of a mobile giant. BBC News. Accessed 30 May Neisser U Cognitive psychology. Harv Bus Rev. Corporate Voices for Working Families. The Ken. In: Sushil, Chroust G eds Systemic flexibility and business agility. New Yorker. Fill in the tasks you currently have to deal with. The technique is based on a Stanford University study from the s which analysed data from Fortune companies.
The problem was not that the employees were incompetent but that the objectives were too ambiguous. SWOT was developed from the results of the study to help those involved in a project to gain a clearer understanding of it. It is worth taking the time to think about each step of the SWOT analysis rather than just hastily fill it out.
How can we emphasise our strengths and compensate for or cover up our weaknesses? How can we maximise opportunities? How can we protect ourselves against threats? What is interesting about SWOT analysis is its versatility: it can be applied to business and personal decisions with equal success. The things we fear most in organisations — fluctuations, disturbances, imbalances — are the primary sources of creativity.
Margaret J. Wheatley Think back to a big project in your life and about how you would have filled in SWOT diagram at the time. Compare that with how you would fill it in today. But growth devours money. The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cows.
With a lot of financial support and cajolement, they can be turned into stars.
Dogs should be held on to only if they have a value other than a financial one e. Sir John Templeton Arrange your financial products, investments or projects in the matrix.
The axes indicate growth potential and market share. The variety may be appealing, but how can you balance all these projects? And how do you ensure a regular income? To get an overview, you can classify your current projects, both work-related and private, with the help of the project portfolio matrix according to cost and time see model.
Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms of resources such as friends involved, energy and psychological stress. Cost and time are just two examples. Try to change the project so that it serves your vision. The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is too low and we reach it. Michelangelo Arrange your current projects in the matrix: are you on budget and on time?
If you set yourself goals, you should distinguish between final goals and performance goals. Write down your goal on paper and check, step by step, whether it correlates with the fourteen requirements in the model.
A few things to note: if a goal is unattainable, there is no hope, and if it is not challenging it will not motivate you. Everything should be made as simple as possible. But no simpler. A friend, colleague or client needs to make a decision that could irrevocably alter their future: for example to change career, move to another city or take early retirement.
The arguments for and against are evenly balanced. How can you help them out of their dilemma? Copy out the rubber band model, and ask the person to ask themselves: What is holding me? What is pulling me? A peacefulness follows any decision, even the wrong one. It is easy to hurt people with criticism, but false compliments are also unhelpful.
Compliments often make us too complacent, while criticism damages our self-esteem and can lead us to make unwise choices. It is not only about establishing what has not succeeded, it is also about deciding whether and how to react. The model will help you to categorise the feedback you receive in order to clearly establish a plan of action. Do you really deserve this compliment? Pay attention to your thoughts, because they become words. Pay attention to your words, because they become actions.
Pay attention to your actions, because they become habits. Pay attention to your habits, because they become your character. Pay attention to your character, because it is your fate.
From the Talmud Arrange the feedback you have received in the matrix. What advice do you want to follow? Which criticisms prompt you to take action? Which suggestions can you ignore? Conventional models for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of often imprudent expenditure or of decisions that have already been made rather than as an objective evaluation of strategies.
A simpler and more constructive starting point for determining brand loyalty is to find out what your customers think about your product. The ratio of promoters to critics is the barometer of success.
Draw a client or portfolio structure in the shape of a family tree. Now you will see how or through whom a client became a client. Boughs with more branches require more maintenance. They represent a risk of over-concentration and can easily break. Then think about how your circle of friends and acquaintances is structured. Through whom did you meet most of your friends? Are you still friends with this person? Or draw the tree of your clients: through whom have you reached most of your customers?
But how is this achieved? The concept of morphology stems from the study of biological structures and configurations. In the s, the Swiss physicist Fritz Zwicky at the Institute of Technology in California developed a problem-solving method using what he called morphological boxes, in which a new entity is developed by combining the attributes of a variety of existing entities. This method, which was initially applied by Zwicky to jet engine technology, also began to be used in marketing strategies and the development of new ideas.
This requires expertise as well as imagination, as the aim is to create something new out of something that already exists. The result in this case is a two-dimensional table although a morphological box can have up to four dimensions.
The next stage requires brainstorming: the car has to be an SUV, say, but it also needs to be energy-efficient and inexpensive to manufacture. Which attributes match these requirements? Connect your chosen attributes with a line. This new configuration of attributes can form the basis for an evaluation of your desired car.
Substitute people, components, materials. Combine with other functions or things. Adapt functions or visual appearance. Modify the size, shape, texture or acoustics. Other, new, combined uses. Reduce, simplify, eliminate anything superfluous.
Use conversely, invert, reverse. The task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen, but to think what nobody yet has thought about that which everybody sees. A cheap or impersonal gift can make the recipient feel undervalued, and create an awkward situation for both giver and receiver. download something that you would be pleased to receive as a gift yourself.
I have the simplest tastes. I am always satisfied with the best. Oscar Wilde The model shows which people you should give gifts to, when, and to what value. What is the most valuable gift you have ever given — and received?
At the beginning of a project, for example, when the finer details have yet to be clarified, we need to be bold in our decision-making — particularly because these early decisions have the most far-reaching consequences. Towards the end of a project we know more and have fewer doubts, but by then there is no longer anything fundamental to decide.
The most important question, then, is how we can bridge the chasm between doubt and decision. We often defer decisions because we have doubts. But not making a decision is a decision in itself. If you delay a resolution it is often an unconscious decision, one that you do not communicate.
This leads to uncertainty in a team. So if you want to make a decision later, be sure to communicate this clearly. The question is, how? In principle there are six different ways of dealing with a conflict situation: escape, fight, give up, evade responsibility, compromise or reach a consensus. Escaping is the same as avoiding.
The conflict is not dealt with, and the situation remains the same. It can be assumed that neither side will gain anything. This is a lose—lose situation. Those who deal with a conflict aggressively have only one aim: to win. But winning alone is not enough, as somebody also has to lose. The result is a win— lose situation.
Give up. Those who give up their own position in a conflict solve it by retreating, i. The result is a lose—win situation. Evade responsibility. Those who feel overwhelmed by a conflict often delegate the decision — and thus also the confrontation — to another authority, usually a higher one.
There is a risk that the parties on both sides of the conflict will lose lose—lose situation. Depending on how it is perceived, a compromise is a solution acceptable to both parties.
Reach a consensus.
A consensus is based on a new solution that has been developed by both parties. In contrast to a compromise, it is a win—win situation for both parties, because nobody has to back down. Graffiti on a youth centre in Bern, Switzerland This model shows the six typical reactions to a conflict.
What conflict type are you? What type is your adversary?
We all have times in our lives when we find ourselves at a crossroads, and ask ourselves: where now? The crossroads model is inspired by The Personal Compass, developed by San Francisco consulting agency The Grove, and helps you to find your direction in life. How have you become who you are?
What have been the main decisions, events and obstacles in your life, and who were your main influences? Think about your education, your home, where you grew up. And make a note of keywords that strike you as important. Write down the first three things that come into your head. What are your values? What do you believe in? Which principles are important to you? When everything fails, what remains? Here you should think of people whose opinions you value, and who influence your decisions, as well as those who are affected by your decisions.
Think also about the people you like and those you fear. What aspects of your life prevent you from thinking about the really important things? Which deadlines do you have in your head, and what is hindering you? What do you have to do, and when? List the things, circumstances or people that cause you worry and rob you of your strength. Look at your notes. What issues have arisen? If necessary, jot down more keywords and questions. Now look at the roads that lie ahead of you.
We have given six examples. Imagine each one: 1. The road that beckons — what have you always wanted to try? The road that I imagine in my wildest dreams, regardless of whether it is achievable or not — what do you dream of? The road that seems most sensible to me, the one that people whose opinion I value would suggest to me.
The road not travelled — one you have never considered before. The road I have already been down. The road back, to a place you once felt safe. You decide. When was the last time you did something for the first time?
Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend. Then imagine the road that you could take. Over two thousand years ago, Aristotle came to the unsurprising conclusion that what a person wants above all is to be happy. After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy, he found that all the responses had five things in common. Musicians, athletes, actors, doctors and artists describe how they are happiest when they are absorbed in an often exhausting activity — totally contradicting the commonly held view that happiness has to do with relaxation.
What is preventing you from being happy? The model has two axes: the level of the challenge, and the level of your abilities.
On the graph, write down the last three challenges you have faced, and how you felt about them. This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we are aware of ourselves and that we like to tell others about.
It decreases in size the more we build up a trusting relationship with others. There are things that we do not know about ourselves but that others can see clearly. And there are things that we think we are expressing clearly, but which others interpret completely differently.
In this quadrant, feedback can be enlightening but also hurtful. There are aspects of ourselves that are hidden from ourselves as well as others. We are more complex and multifaceted than we think. From time to time something unknown rises to the surface from our unconscious — for example in a dream. Choose adjectives fun, unreliable, etc. Then let others friends, colleagues choose adjectives to describe you. The adjectives are then entered in the appropriate panes of the window.
Try this exercise with your partner. Are there things about your partner that you wished you had never discovered? The Johari window provides a model of personal awareness. But why do we find it so difficult to recognise our mistakes? Why do we even go as far as defending our actions when we are confronted with their shortcomings? Rather than asking for forgiveness, we embark on one of the more unlikeable human attributes: self-justification.
This acts as a protective mechanism that enables us to sleep at night and frees us from self-doubt. We see only what we want to see, and ignore everything that contradicts our view. We look for arguments that reinforce our position. But how can we overcome this dissonance? Either by changing our behaviour or our attitude. A great nation is like a great man: when he makes a mistake, he realises it. Having realised it, he admits it. Having admitted it, he corrects it. He considers those who point out his faults as his most benevolent teachers.
Lao Zi When were you last aware of a cognitive dissonance in yourself? And when in your partner? Models explain how everything is connected, how we should act and what we should and should not do. But do they prevent us from seeing things for what they really are?
The historian of science and philosopher Thomas Kuhn argued that science usually just works towards corroborating its models, and reacts with ignorance when — as is often the case — the models do not correspond to reality. This insight may not have earned him a Nobel Prize, but he did land himself a professorship at an elite university. We often believe so strongly in models that they take on the status of reality.
A good example of this is the ontological proof of the existence of God, which Kant explored in his philosophy. He maintained that if we are able to imagine a being as perfect as God, then he must exist. And what do you believe in despite having no evidence to support it? It reveals behavioural traits and tendencies. How much of a team person are you, and how much of an individualist? Do you pay more attention to content or to form?
What is more important to you: the body or the mind? Do you feel more global than local? Use a pen to connect the lines. You are only creating a snapshot. And note that the sum of an axis should always be ten you cannot be ten points local and ten points global. What is preventing you from being the way you would like to be? Fill in the model for yourself. Then ask your partner or a good friend to fill it in for you. Compare the results. The art of dressing without dressing up.
But why? What matters is to move surely and calmly, with the appropriate humour and the appropriate melancholy in the temporally and spatially internal landscape that we are. Or to put it another way, how often do you think, wistfully or thankfully, about what has been?
How often do you have the feeling that you are really concentrating on what you are doing at a particular moment? How often do you imagine what the future may hold, and how often do you worry about what lies ahead of you?
But you can ruin the present by worrying about the future. Stability, on the other hand, is to do with how deeply information is anchored in our brains. Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level of retrievability. But if you see the number in front of you, you will recognise it immediately.
Imagine that you are learning Chinese. You have learned a word and memorised it. Without practice, over time it will become increasingly difficult to remember. The amount of time it takes for you to forget it completely can be calculated, and ideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in the process of forgetting it. The more often you are reminded of the word, the longer you will remember it for. Jan Cox After learning something, you should ideally refresh your memory of it at the following intervals: one, ten, thirty and sixty days afterwards.
Traditionally at opposite ends of the political spectrum, Labour and Conservative have moved so close together in terms of shared economic and social policies, that there is little left to distinguish them. Traditional definitions can also be misleading. Its position on race and nationalism means that the BNP is generally regarded as radically right-wing, yet it is far to the left even of Labour when it comes to some social issues like health and housing.
The clear-cut political divisions of the past may have become blurred, but there are models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters. One of the most famous of these tools is called the political compass. You can plot your political position on this model, the axes of which are left—right and liberal—authoritarian. Always radical, never consistent. Walter Benjamin Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the general election by politicalcompass.
Ask yourself where you stand. Where did you stand ten years ago? But how can job dissatisfaction be measured? This model will help you to evaluate your job situation. To what extent are my current tasks being imposed on me or demanded of me?
To what extent do my tasks match my abilities? To what extent does my current task correspond to what I really want? To what extent do they match your abilities, and to what extent do they correspond to what you want? Our dreams are acted out in the future, and our hopes are pinned on fulfilling these dreams.
Perhaps because we think we can determine our future. However, we tend to forget that every future has a past, and that our past is the foundation on which our future is built. This is how it works: you define a timeframe — e. Memory is the only paradise from which we cannot be driven. Jean Paul Choose a timeframe and note the following: What were your goals?
What did you learn? What obstacles did you overcome? What were your successes? Which people played an important role? It is the curse of talented people.
His shortcomings are overlooked and his successes admired for the ease with which they are achieved. To begin with, he profits from this attractive yet fatal combination of talent and charisma. That is, until the stupid ones become hardworking: then he has to watch from the sidelines as he is overtaken by precisely those people who had once enviously looked up to him.
The personal potential trap can be precisely traced. Normally a talented person cruises along until a crisis point is reached. The way to go is to promise 80 and deliver Are you prepared to expect less of yourself than what you think others expect of you? The model shows three curves: my own expectations, the expectations of others and my achievements.
If the three diverge too much, you will fall into the personal potential trap. What will be the next big thing? Will it be relevant and useful — and will people love it? Noboby knows the answers to these questions, but the people at Stamford consulting company Gartner might know more than most.
What people love about technology is, basically, that it works.
Emailing works. The internet, if you have a bit of time on your hands, works. Text messaging works. What do they all have in common? They all went through each of the five phases of the hype cycle: 1. Technology trigger. Peak of inflated expectations.
The hype is at its peak. But people start to find mistakes. Trough of disillusionment. The product fails to meet expectations. The not-so-cool people use it. Slope of enlightenment. The media have stopped covering the technology, the hype is over.
This is when many technologies simply fall out of the market. But some businesses might continue to experiment. They might change the original version or find new uses for it. Plateau of productivity. The benefits of the technology become widely demonstrated and accepted. Often it is the 2. You hear… nothing any more. People simply use it. Love is for ever as long as it lasts.
Then you start having second thoughts. After a certain time you either split up or make a long-term commitment. There is not one single, well-established concept in the field of management on which you can build a testable theory. What are the subtle differences between functioning and non-functioning structures? But what we do know, thanks to US journalist Mark Buchanan, is that communication is vital for a healthy working environment, and that communication takes place on two levels: what we say, and how we say it.
Who moves when, how often and where to? In what tone of voice is A speaking to B? Who is stressed, who seems to be suffering from burnout?
Who do you talk to most of all? Whose opinion do you value most? With whom do you speak and how often, and what are the consequences of your discussions?
Arrange your discussions with colleagues in the matrix.
And could you say with which five people you communicate the most? And could you also say what all your acquaintanceships have in common? The following model attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of your address book. Go through your contacts list and divide up your contacts according to the following criteria: who you see and how often, and to which group friends, family, acquaintances, colleagues they belong. Who would you like to see more of? Who would you prefer to see less of?
What do you know? Begin with the top right field. Some people learn from them, while others repeat them. Here is what you need to know about mistakes. The model compares the different levels on which mistakes occur with slices of Emmental cheese. In a mistake-free world, the cheese would have no holes.
But in the real world, the cheese is cut into thin slices, and every slice has many holes that are in different places in different slices. Imagine the holes as conduits for mistakes. A mistake remains unnoticed or irrelevant if it penetrates only one hole in one of the slices. But it can lead to catastrophe if the holes in the different slices align and the mistake passes through all the holes in all of the defences. The model can be used in the fields of medicine and air traffic, for example — and anywhere where mistakes can have fatal consequences.
Experience is the name everyone gives to his mistakes.